Gold becoming a cellar dweller

First topic message reminder :

I note that the price of gold has been continually falling in the past 5 months yet gold has been in very high demand from India..
With the demise of the gold price a lot of small gold miners will start feelin the pinch..

$1575.00 aussie mmm maybe time to reconcile ones position..

Is CASH king?

Obviously we all need a crystal ball..

I note a few people who keep telling me what they think their gold is worth--I dont have a problem with that I have a concern with individuals saying that its worth a lot more--My simple answer to those characters is to go out there and buy it--real simple and if u dont have the backing then talk is cheap..

My humble opinion would be, to sell your stash and convert it to cash and if u still want gold then buy gold bars from the Perth Mint ..otherwise sell it on flea bay --there seems to be a lot of confused individuals out there buying gold at even highly inflated prices coz its on auction--a lot of it is less than a gram..

So until gold finds its direction in life I feel its downward spiral will continue..

regards
oneday

True this is were inflation starts to kickin down the line. Everything from overseas gets priced higher as we produce very little in oz now. Shame we do not even make tomato sauce in oz now.  23% of all australias food comes in via New Zealand.  The real painfull one in the future is fuel prices.  Watch the dollar drop at around 2pm to 3pm on Tuesday. It is 89 cents now should be about 87 on tuesday. Give or take.

geez getting back to were the price was back in Feb this year...
thanks to the Aussie dollar and a election..

regards
oneday

We should have a poll on what price it will be on the last trading day of 2013. Perhaps like

1. Under $40/gm Guess $??.??/gm

2. $40 to $45/gm Guess $??>??/gm

3. $45 to $50/gm etc. etc. or along these lines.

G,day Neil,

4. $50 to $55/gm?
This would be my guess.

Me Too. I'll go option 4.......$50 - $55.

Around $1600 per oz. But then I'm an optimist

Regards Roger  

Not much of a optimist at those prices.....

Hi Neil,

What are we talking here? US or AU.

aussie aussie aussie--its easier.

regards
oneday

Sorry folks i'm a pessimist i think some conflicts and some stumbles in the global recovery will see gold go to AUD$61 per gram ...about AUD$1900 a troy ounce. (i am assuming the AUD will be about 86 cents against the USD).

It will be fun to see how much out of wack our guesses are at the end of the year:D 
Cheers Tributer

I'm with you Tributer, I think the Aussie dollar will slip considerably and we will be looking at AUD 58 per gram around AUD 1800 per oz.

If gold reaches $1800 AUD it will be worth breaking out the old sluice box again on some fine gold areas.
Nudging closer to $1600 this morning.

I'm going to guess at A$56/gram last trading day of 2013.  

with the Syrian bull shite goin on Gold seem to have gained favour again.

The yanks are ready to have a go so the fear index has jumped 15% in 2 days.

the 1600 dollar barrier has been broken so look out in the next few weeks...1800 may look desirable.

regards
oneday

Il go 1900 + or - 100 aus dollar POG end of 2013 , as this time of year, following past cycles it rises & then after march or so it seems to slump again .

Hi Albo I wish gold was 1900--your prediction is a bit off --

I have just sold some of my gold for the first time since I owned a 2200,
mind u it was only 6 ozes at $1375.00 less all the charges and impurities..

a few stallwarts out there are suggesting the metal will rebound so long as the yanks keep printing money..but with our aussie dollar at 94us its a long road ahead.

regards
oneday

yep Ray off by a longshot the us has been selling paper gold contracts I read to hold it down & protect the ailing US dollar ,[ I follow King world news reports , no relation ]

i will say AU$1228 troy Oz. cant see any major changes for 6 mths or so. see what happens. hope im wrong

Here's my prediction.  AUD$5,000 and oz before Xmas   
Ok, I'll shut up and have another beer    at least it looks gold in colour in the glass        

Here's something I wrote on another forum. It's a bit technical as I'm a "student" of economics but here we go:

"Interesting. It's a very bullish view and not one I subscribe to, even though I hold physical gold.

But as usual, I've just read an opposing article in the Fin Rev that I do tend to go with. i.e whilst QE will still be the big thing with Janet Yellen as the head of US Federal Reserve, I reckon it will not cause sufficient inflation that would see a big rise in the gold price.

Indeed, the amount of "unreal money" that was "lost" during the GCF was absurdly ridiculous. So much so that what we're seeing these days is not only the "new normal" but a return to actual normality That can't happen quickly. It has to happen slowly over years. Hence the level of deflation is so huge that a return to a normal level of economic activity is such that inflation won't be seen for a decade. Hence, I doubt gold will see much of a rise from here. In fact, I see a gradual decline.

I wish it were different and I also wish I could talk my wife into selling before it does!!"

But having said all that stuff, I reckon that not much will happen in the near future. I can see the Aus Dollar staying roughly where it is and the gold price going down slightly. So, not much, in fact boring in the next 6 months. So my guess?,,,,,,,45 bucks a gramme maximum and 42 bucks min until June 2014.

Cat

If anyone wants to check the cycle for the last 10 to 20 years, you will find it is a cycle beyond our control.
The price of gold is up and down and never stable.
It is driven by the so called "Stock Market".
The price of gold is controlled.
Controlled by a few. Who they are, I have no idea but it is being done.
It's how the world works.

whats your thoughts on James Sinclair statement last week?
QUOTE
"
Jim Sinclair’s $50,000 gold call – let’s hope it doesn’t happen
Jim Sinclair who has a tremendous following within the gold investment community, has predicted in an interview that gold will reach $50,000, but this envisages currency collapse and hyperinflation.



Author: Lawrence Williams
Posted: Monday , 04 Nov 2013
LONDON (MINEWEB) -

In an interview last week on www.usawatchdog.com , Jim Sinclair did suggest that in what he sees as a definitely possible scenario, gold could hit a massive $50,000 an ounce, perhaps by 2020 – but the circumstances under which this might happen are not what anyone, particularly in the USA, should wish for, however much of a gold bug you may be.
His current shorter term predictions are that gold will hit $1650 this year, rise to $2400, fall back and then move up to between $3200 and $3500 by the end of 2016. However, he also sees unprecedented manipulation of prices in the precious metals markets which has been distorting the figures, with huge amounts of paper gold so far being successful in keeping the gold price down.

But he does see this coming to an end. He also suspects that at some time many Western governments will follow the Cyprus solution to bail out the banking system, which he sees as extremely precarious, by effectively confiscating savers’ cash held by the banks and that holding gold, while avoiding the traditional banking system, would be a wise move towards protecting one’s wealth..

"

man im confused

I can see what cats post is saying re - deflation keeping the price down, do they have the dicipline to do it slowly over time as sugested? i think if it does happen it will be a slight dip followed by loss of control a massive crash / correction to where it should be.
The repocutions for the FED if deflation sets in are massive and they will avoid at all costs, ie keep printing to offset deflation with inflation like the japs are at the moment,

or -
all the paper gold gets valued for what is as paper - phisical gold goes to the moon, i think to many people have to much skin in the game to let this happen, bail in's etc will come first.

or -
china issues a gold backed yen to take over from the USD this would help gold price alot but i recon this is a pipe dream and dont think the chineese will go for this as how would they then get to manipulate it!!

interesting times, the market is so minipulated now in so many new ways i dont think there is any point in looking into the past for an answer got to look foward and try and make sence of it all

Ive givin up trying to guess how long the can will be kicked down the path.

its a mixed bag , Europe is deflating bigtime going by the piigs countries , the us is inflating & printing useless US dollars as per the Benenke private jewish bank plan -the fed reserve strategy of printing us dollars , dunno how our aus dollar will fare & hence our gold price , one thing for certain tho, solid hard gold or silver in the hand will be the best thing to own over the coming 1-3 years , albo

Ok, so ya got the USA printing more money hoping it will help them. It's a well known fact the Japanese and Chinese governments bought a lot of the US debt, how that is done I don't know, but if they ever call in the IOU's, I'd hate to think what would happen.

Think back about 70 years ago. A country in Europe starting printing more money in the hope it would help as they had big debts to pay.
End result ? a wheel barrow full of notes was needed to buy a loaf of bread.

By printing more useless currency, what was the result of their actions ? a bankrupt country.

Hmmm, I think I'll start converting some of my cash to gold if the price drops lower.

I remember seeing old photos of a bloke in Germany 1929 depression I think , homeless but had a wheelbarrow full of useless deutchmarks & was feeding the drum fire with it on the edge of the street just to keep warm , a few ounces of gold is always handy if they start that caper .